Accuracy

How well 2024 election odds predicted the actual outcome

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Accuracy prior to resolution

Shows how accurate Polymarket odds in 2024 election were at different points before they resolved.

Expected vs Actual

How closely Polymarket forecasts in 2024 election line up with actual outcomes. The dashed line represents the ideal case, where the forecasted outcome of a market matches the actual outcome. Points below the dashed line indicate that the market is overpriced, while points above the dashed line indicate that the market is underpriced. Each dot is sized by how many markets it covers.