Accuracy
How well Iran Ceasefire odds predicted the actual outcome
23Active events236.3KTotal traders
Accuracy prior to resolution
Shows how accurate Polymarket odds in Iran Ceasefire were at different points before they resolved.
Expected vs Actual
How closely Polymarket forecasts in Iran Ceasefire line up with actual outcomes. The dashed line represents the ideal case, where the forecasted outcome of a market matches the actual outcome. Points below the dashed line indicate that the market is overpriced, while points above the dashed line indicate that the market is underpriced. Each dot is sized by how many markets it covers.