Accuracy
How well Foreign Policy odds predicted the actual outcome
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Accuracy prior to resolution
Shows how accurate Polymarket odds in Foreign Policy were at different points before they resolved.
Expected vs Actual
How closely Polymarket forecasts in Foreign Policy line up with actual outcomes. The dashed line represents the ideal case, where the forecasted outcome of a market matches the actual outcome. Points below the dashed line indicate that the market is overpriced, while points above the dashed line indicate that the market is underpriced. Each dot is sized by how many markets it covers.